Treasury yields are slightly lower this morning following multiple headlines overnight.
In an interview with Fox News, President Trump said he’d “rather not have to use” tariffs against China but that the threat of them provides “one very big power over China.” In recent weeks, the rhetoric from the White House related to tariffs has been more skewed to using them as a negotiating tool than a broad policy initiative discussed during the campaign. The former eases financial market anxiety somewhat. As expected, the Bank of Japan increased its policy rate by 25 bps to 0.5% and provided guidance for more hikes to come. Europe’s preliminary PMI data for January showed modest improvement in the manufacturing sector, and the composite reading (manufacturing + services) edged up into expansionary territory for the first time since October. U.S. PMI data will be released later this morning.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 1/24/2025 | Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 1/24/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 49.8 | — | 49.4 | — |
| 1/24/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 56.5 | — | 56.8 | — |
| 1/24/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 55.6 | — | 55.4 | — |
| 1/24/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 73.2 | — | 73.2 | — |
| 1/24/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 77.9 | — |
| 1/24/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 70.2 | — |
| 1/24/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 3.20% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 1/24/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.20% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 1/24/2025 | Existing Home Sales | 4.20m | — | 4.15m | — |
| 1/24/2025 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 1.20% | — | 4.80% | — |
| 1/24/2025 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 2 | — |
| 1/27/2025 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | — | — | -0.12 | — |
| 1/27/2025 | New Home Sales | 670k | — | 664k | — |
| 1/27/2025 | New Home Sales MoM | 6.20% | — | 5.90% | — |
| 1/27/2025 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | 3.4 | — |
| 1/27/2025 | Building Permits | — | — | 1483k | — |
| 1/27/2025 | Building Permits MoM | — | — | -0.70% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.80% | — | -1.20% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.40% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.30% | — | 0.32% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 4.22% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 3.60% | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | 9.6 | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 105.6 | — | 104.7 | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 140.2 | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 81.1 | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | -10 | — |
| 1/28/2025 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | 14 | — |
| 1/29/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 1/29/2025 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$105.5b | — | -$102.9b | — |
| 1/29/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | -0.20% | — |
| 1/29/2025 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 1/29/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 4.50% | — | 4.50% | — |
| 1/29/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 4.25% | — | 4.25% | — |
| 1/29/2025 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | — | — | 4.40% | — |
| 1/30/2025 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.60% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 1/30/2025 | Personal Consumption | 3.10% | — | 3.70% | — |
| 1/30/2025 | GDP Price Index | 2.50% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 1/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | — | — | 2.20% | — |
| 1/30/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 223k | — |
| 1/30/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1899k | — |
| 1/30/2025 | Pending Home Sales MoM | -1.00% | — | 2.20% | — |
| 1/30/2025 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | 5.60% | — |
| 1/31/2025 | Employment Cost Index | 1.00% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 1/31/2025 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 1/31/2025 | Personal Spending | 0.50% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 1/31/2025 | Real Personal Spending | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 1/31/2025 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 1/31/2025 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 1/31/2025 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 1/31/2025 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.80% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 1/31/2025 | MNI Chicago PMI | 39.7 | — | 36.9 | — |
