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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

GDP growth exceeded expectations by 130 basis points (bps) in Q4, rising 3.3% q/q (annualized).

The topline growth rate was boosted by another strong quarter for U.S. households, with personal consumption up 2.8% (2.5% expected). Inventories and trade contributed a combined 50 bps to growth. The bond market, at least initially, is clinging to the fact that the GDP price index (inflation measure) was just 1.5% in Q4, well below expectations of a 2.2% increase. Separately, initial jobless claims rose to 214,000 last week (200k expected), and durable goods orders exceeded expectations in December, particularly the component that tracks capital expenditures. Treasury yields are 3 bps lower following the data releases, with market participants choosing to focus less on the strong growth in Q4 and instead focus more on the lower price index and increase in jobless claims.

In other news, the Federal Reserve announced that it will not be extending its Bank Term Funding Program beyond March 11. Additionally, the rate on any new loans will be floored at the interest rate on reserve balances (IORB). The latter is meant to end arbitrage opportunities for banks and credit unions, which had become a popular topic in financial media over the last few weeks.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
1/25/2024Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.06-0.150.030.01
1/25/2024GDP Annualized QoQ2.00%3.30%4.90%—
1/25/2024Personal Consumption2.50%2.80%3.10%—
1/25/2024GDP Price Index2.20%1.50%3.30%—
1/25/2024Core PCE Price Index QoQ2.00%2.00%2.00%—
1/25/2024Advance Goods Trade Balance-$88.7b-$88.5b-$90.3b-$89.3b
1/25/2024Retail Inventories MoM0.00%0.80%-0.10%0.10%
1/25/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.20%0.40%-0.20%-0.40%
1/25/2024Durable Goods Orders1.50%0.00%5.40%5.50%
1/25/2024Durables Ex Transportation0.20%0.60%0.40%0.50%
1/25/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.10%0.30%0.80%1.00%
1/25/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.00%0.10%-0.20%—
1/25/2024Initial Jobless Claims200k214k187k189k
1/25/2024Continuing Claims1823k1833k1806k—
1/25/2024New Home Sales649k—590k—
1/25/2024New Home Sales MoM10.00%—######—
1/25/2024Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity-3—-1—
1/26/2024Personal Income0.30%—0.40%—
1/26/2024Personal Spending0.50%—0.20%—
1/26/2024Real Personal Spending0.30%—0.30%—
1/26/2024PCE Deflator MoM0.20%—-0.10%—
1/26/2024PCE Deflator YoY2.60%—2.60%—
1/26/2024PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%—0.10%—
1/26/2024PCE Core Deflator YoY3.00%—3.20%—
1/26/2024Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey
1/26/2024Pending Home Sales MoM2.00%—0.00%—
1/26/2024Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-4.30%—-5.10%—
1/26/2024Kansas City Fed Services Activity——-10—
1/29/2024Dallas Fed Manf. Activity——-9.3—
1/30/2024FHFA House Price Index MoM——0.30%—
1/30/2024S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA——0.64%—
1/30/2024S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA——4.87%—
1/30/2024S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA——4.77%—
1/30/2024Conf. Board Consumer Confidence111.6—110.7—
1/30/2024Conf. Board Present Situation——148.5—
1/30/2024Conf. Board Expectations——85.6—
1/30/2024JOLTS Job Openings——8790k—
1/30/2024Dallas Fed Services Activity——-8.7—
1/31/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——3.70%—
1/31/2024ADP Employment Change135k—164k—
1/31/2024Employment Cost Index1.00%—1.10%—
1/31/2024MNI Chicago PMI48.1—46.947.2
1/31/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)5.50%—5.50%—
1/31/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)5.25%—5.25%—
1/31/2024Interest on Reserve Balances Rate——5.40%—
2/1/2024Challenger Job Cuts YoY——######—
2/1/2024Nonfarm Productivity1.20%—5.20%—
2/1/2024Unit Labor Costs3.00%—-1.20%—
2/1/2024Initial Jobless Claims——214k—
2/1/2024Continuing Claims——1833k—
2/1/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI——50.3—
2/1/2024Construction Spending MoM0.60%—0.40%—
2/1/2024ISM New Orders——47.147.4
2/1/2024ISM Employment——48.147.3
2/1/2024ISM Manufacturing47.3—47.447.2
2/1/2024ISM Prices Paid——45.2—
2/1/2024Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.65m—15.83m—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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