Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasuries yields are modestly lower on softer European economic data as well as lower than expected funding needs by the U.S. government over the next two quarters.

The Eurozone narrowly avoided a recession to end 2023, with regional GDP flat in Q4 at 0.0% following a 0.1% decline in Q3. Stronger than expected growth from Italy and Spain helped avoid a second consecutive negative growth quarter, but the region’s largest economy, Germany, shrank 0.3% in Q4. Elsewhere, China’s 10-year yield fell to 2.47%, the lowest since 2002, as the country’s economy and stock market continue to struggle. China’s debt-to-GDP ratio climbed to a new record high of 288% in 2023, up 13.5 percentage points from a year prior. Later this morning, the JOLTS report for December will be released, which is expected to show a modest decline to 8.75 million.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
1/30/2024FHFA House Price Index MoM0.30%—0.30%—
1/30/2024S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.50%—0.64%—
1/30/2024S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA5.80%—4.87%—
1/30/2024S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA——4.77%—
1/30/2024Conf. Board Consumer Confidence114.8—110.7—
1/30/2024Conf. Board Present Situation——148.5—
1/30/2024Conf. Board Expectations——85.6—
1/30/2024JOLTS Job Openings8750k—8790k—
1/30/2024Dallas Fed Services Activity——-8.7—
1/31/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——3.70%—
1/31/2024ADP Employment Change150k—164k—
1/31/2024Employment Cost Index1.00%—1.10%—
1/31/2024MNI Chicago PMI48—46.947.2
1/31/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)5.50%—5.50%—
1/31/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)5.25%—5.25%—
1/31/2024Interest on Reserve Balances Rate5.40%—5.40%—
2/1/2024Challenger Job Cuts YoY——-20.20%—
2/1/2024Nonfarm Productivity2.50%—5.20%—
2/1/2024Unit Labor Costs1.20%—-1.20%—
2/1/2024Initial Jobless Claims212k—214k—
2/1/2024Continuing Claims1840k—1833k—
2/1/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI50.3—50.3—
2/1/2024Construction Spending MoM0.50%—0.40%—
2/1/2024ISM Manufacturing47.3—47.4—
2/1/2024ISM Prices Paid45.8—45.2—
2/1/2024ISM New Orders——47.1—
2/1/2024ISM Employment——48.1—
2/1/2024Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.70m—15.83m—
2/2/2024Revisions: Establishment Survey Data
2/2/2024Two-Month Payroll Net Revision————
2/2/2024Change in Nonfarm Payrolls185k—216k—
2/2/2024Change in Private Payrolls165k—164k—
2/2/2024Change in Manufact. Payrolls3k—6k—
2/2/2024Unemployment Rate3.80%—3.70%—
2/2/2024Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%—0.40%—
2/2/2024Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.10%—4.10%—
2/2/2024Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3—34.3—
2/2/2024Labor Force Participation Rate62.60%—62.50%—
2/2/2024Underemployment Rate——7.10%—
2/2/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment78.9—78.8—
2/2/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions——83.3—
2/2/2024U. of Mich. Expectations——75.9—
2/2/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation——2.90%—
2/2/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——2.80%—
2/2/2024Factory Orders0.20%—2.60%—
2/2/2024Factory Orders Ex Trans——0.10%—
2/2/2024Durable Goods Orders0.00%—0.00%—
2/2/2024Durables Ex Transportation——0.60%—
2/2/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air——0.30%—
2/2/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——0.10%—
2/5/2024S&P Global US Services PMI——52.9—
2/5/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI——52.3—
2/5/2024ISM Services Index52.3—50.6—
2/5/2024ISM Services Prices Paid——57.4—
2/5/2024ISM Services New Orders——52.8—
2/5/2024ISM Services Employment——43.3—
2/5/2024Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.