Treasury yields are following oil prices modestly lower again this morning.
However, US tech stocks are poised to struggle again today, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.7% an hour ahead of the open. Semiconductor stocks are at the center of the technology correction. After posting a 60%+ return in Q2, the MSCI World Semiconductor index has produced a -13% return so far in July through yesterday’s close. The weakness in tech stocks has not affected the broader market to this point amid solid earnings reports in general. The equal-weighted S&P 500 index (SPW) has generated a 1.3% return so far in July, while the market-weighted index (SPX), which is more skewed to the largest tech companies, is down 1.2% MTD.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 7/28/2026 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | 15.000k | 16.500k | 16.250k |
| 7/28/2026 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$100.0b | -$101.5b | -$105.8b | -$105.9b |
| 7/28/2026 | Advance Goods Imports MoM SA | — | -2.60% | 3.60% | 4.00% |
| 7/28/2026 | Advance Goods Exports MoM SA | — | -1.80% | -5.40% | -5.30% |
| 7/28/2026 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.40% | 0.00% | 0.60% | 0.50% |
| 7/28/2026 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.30% |
| 7/28/2026 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.10% | 0.30% | -0.10% | — |
| 7/28/2026 | S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.00% | 0.15% | -0.04% | -0.03% |
| 7/28/2026 | S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA | 1.30% | 1.63% | 1.14% | 1.18% |
| 7/28/2026 | S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA | 1.00% | 1.11% | 0.85% | 0.94% |
| 7/28/2026 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 6 | — | 4 | — |
| 7/28/2026 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | -2 | — | -9 | — |
| 7/28/2026 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 92.4 | — | 91.2 | — |
| 7/28/2026 | Conf. Board Present Situation | 117.5 | — | 116.4 | — |
| 7/28/2026 | Conf. Board Expectations | 74.4 | — | 74.4 | — |
| 7/28/2026 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | 3.8 | — | 2.9 | — |
| 7/29/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 1.90% | — |
| 7/29/2026 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 3.75% | — | 3.75% | — |
| 7/29/2026 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 3.50% | — | 3.50% | — |
| 7/29/2026 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | 3.65% | — | 3.65% | — |
| 7/29/2026 | Fed Reverse Repo Rate | 3.50% | — | 3.50% | — |
| 7/30/2026 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 7/30/2026 | Personal Spending | 0.40% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 7/30/2026 | Real Personal Spending | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 7/30/2026 | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.10% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 7/30/2026 | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.70% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 7/30/2026 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 7/30/2026 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.30% | — | 3.40% | — |
| 7/30/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | 200k | — | 187k | — |
| 7/30/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 207.50k | — |
| 7/30/2026 | Continuing Claims | 1795k | — | 1796k | — |
| 7/30/2026 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.00% | — | 2.10% | — |
| 7/30/2026 | Personal Consumption | 2.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 7/30/2026 | GDP Price Index | 4.00% | — | 3.60% | — |
| 7/30/2026 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 3.50% | — | 4.40% | — |
| 7/31/2026 | Employment Cost Index | 0.80% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 7/31/2026 | MNI Chicago PMI | 56 | — | 56.7 | — |
| 7/31/2026 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 54 | — | 54.4 | — |
| 7/31/2026 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 54.7 | — | 54.9 | — |
| 7/31/2026 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 53.8 | — | 54 | — |
| 7/31/2026 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 4.30% | — | 4.20% | — |
| 7/31/2026 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.30% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 8/3/2026 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 53.8 | — |
| 8/3/2026 | ISM Manufacturing | 54 | — | 53.3 | — |
| 8/3/2026 | ISM Prices Paid | — | — | 73 | — |
| 8/3/2026 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 56 | — |
| 8/3/2026 | ISM Employment | — | — | 49.7 | — |
| 8/3/2026 | Construction Spending MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 8/03/2026 | Omdia Total Vehicle Sales | 16.30m | — | 16.52m | — |
| 8/4/2026 | Trade Balance | -$71.0b | — | -$77.6b | — |
| 8/4/2026 | Imports MoM | — | — | 3.30% | — |
| 8/4/2026 | Exports MoM | — | — | -3.20% | — |
| 8/4/2026 | Factory Orders | — | — | -1.30% | — |
| 8/4/2026 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 1.90% | — |
| 8/4/2026 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 7594k | — |
| 8/4/2026 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | — | — | 4.60% | — |
| 8/4/2026 | JOLTS Quits Level | — | — | 3065k | — |
| 8/4/2026 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 1.90% | — |
| 8/4/2026 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | — | — | 1708k | — |
| 8/4/2026 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 8/4/2026 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 8/4/2026 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.60% | — |
| 8/4/2026 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 8/4/2026 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 1.90% | — |
