Both Treasuries and US stocks are weaker this morning as oil prices move higher. Brent crude futures are up nearly 5% on the day after reports of multiple attacks on shipping vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Yields are up 2-3 basis points across the Treasury curve. Semiconductor stocks are leading the market lower this morning as investor anxiety grows that the rally has gone too far. Since March 30, the iShares Semiconductor ETF has generated a total return of 88% through yesterday’s close, or 945% if annualized.
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised 7/7/2026 ADP Weekly Employment Change — 24.250k 30.750k — 7/7/2026 ADP Weekly Employment Change — 21.000k — — 7/7/2026 Trade Balance -$78.4b -$77.6b -$55.9b -$54.6b 7/7/2026 Imports MoM 2.10% 3.30% 2.00% — 7/7/2026 Exports MoM -3.50% -3.20% 2.60% 3.00% 7/7/2026 NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations — — 3.46% — 7/8/2026 MBA Mortgage Applications — — 0.00% — 7/8/2026 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.30% — 0.30% — 7/8/2026 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.80% — 2.00% — 7/8/2026 FOMC Meeting Minutes — — — 0 7/8/2026 Consumer Credit $17.500b — $20.733b — 7/9/2026 Initial Jobless Claims 218k — 215k — 7/9/2026 Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg — — 222.00k — 7/9/2026 Continuing Claims 1815k — 1814k — 7/9/2026 Existing Home Sales 4.20m — 4.17m — 7/9/2026 Existing Home Sales MoM 1.00% — 3.20% — 7/13/2026 Federal Budget Balance — — -$292.6b — 7/14/2026 NFIB Small Business Optimism 95.5 — 95.3 — 7/14/2026 ADP Weekly Employment Change — — 21.000k — 7/14/2026 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY — — -0.40% -0.50% 7/14/2026 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY — — -0.70% -0.80% 7/14/2026 CPI MoM -0.10% — 0.50% — 7/14/2026 Core CPI MoM 0.30% — 0.20% — 7/14/2026 CPI YoY 3.90% — 4.20% — 7/14/2026 Core CPI YoY 2.90% — 2.90% — 7/14/2026 CPI Index NSA 334.8 — 335.123 — 7/14/2026 Core CPI Index SA 336.969 — 336.121 — 7/14/2026 Total Net TIC Flows — — $26.1b — 7/14/2026 Net Long-term TIC Flows — — $103.1b —
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
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