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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are down 2-3 basis points (bps) to start the month in an extension of Friday’s session. 

Yields ended the month of May down 14-21 bps, with the biggest move in the 5-year part of the curve for the second consecutive month. The rally was stronger in the first half of the month following the softer April jobs report, but yields were up 13-18 bps in the final two weeks of May, fueled by strong PMI data for May and higher consumer confidence readings. Fixed income had another strong month in May, particularly spread sectors. The ICE BofA US Corporate Index outperformed duration-matched Treasuries by 30 bps over the month, and the ICE BofA UMBS Index rebounded with 73 bps of excess return versus Treasuries in May. This week’s calendar is headlined by the May jobs report, which is currently expected to show 190,000 jobs added to nonfarm payrolls and an unchanged unemployment rate of 3.9%.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/3/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI50.9—50.9—
6/3/2024Construction Spending MoM0.20%—-0.20%—
6/3/2024ISM Manufacturing49.5—49.2—
6/3/2024ISM Prices Paid59—60.9—
6/3/2024ISM New Orders49.4—49.1—
6/3/2024ISM Employment48.5—48.6—
6/3/2024Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.80m—15.74m—
6/4/2024JOLTS Job Openings8360k—8488k—
6/4/2024Factory Orders0.60%—1.60%0.80%
6/4/2024Factory Orders Ex Trans0.30%—0.50%0.40%
6/4/2024Durable Goods Orders0.70%—0.70%—
6/4/2024Durables Ex Transportation0.40%—0.40%—
6/4/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air——0.30%—
6/4/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——0.40%—
6/5/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——-5.70%—
6/5/2024ADP Employment Change175k—192k—
6/5/2024S&P Global US Services PMI54.8—54.8—
6/5/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI——54.4—
6/5/2024ISM Services Index51—49.4—
6/5/2024ISM Services Prices Paid——59.2—
6/5/2024ISM Services Employment——45.9—
6/5/2024ISM Services New Orders——52.2—
6/6/2024Challenger Job Cuts YoY——-3.30%—
6/6/2024Revisions: Trade Balance    
6/6/2024Nonfarm Productivity0.10%—0.30%—
6/6/2024Unit Labor Costs4.90%—4.70%—
6/6/2024Trade Balance-$76.4b—-$69.4b—
6/6/2024Initial Jobless Claims220k—219k—
6/6/2024Continuing Claims1790k—1791k—
6/7/2024Two-Month Payroll Net Revision——-22k—
6/7/2024Change in Nonfarm Payrolls190k—175k—
6/7/2024Change in Private Payrolls170k—167k—
6/7/2024Change in Manufact. Payrolls7k—8k—
6/7/2024Unemployment Rate3.90%—3.90%—
6/7/2024Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%—0.20%—
6/7/2024Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.90%—3.90%—
6/7/2024Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3—34.3—
6/7/2024Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%—62.70%—
6/7/2024Underemployment Rate——7.40%—
6/7/2024Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.50%—-1.30%—
6/7/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%—0.20%—
6/7/2024Household Change in Net Worth——$4839b—
6/7/2024Consumer Credit$10.000b—$6.274b—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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