Treasury yields are little changed on relatively light volumes to start the day.
The yield curve moved lower and flatter yesterday following the release of the April JOLTS report, which showed a larger than expected decline in job openings to 8.06 million (8.35 million expected). Openings fell more than 750,000 in March/April combined and are now much closer to the pre-COVID peak of 7.59 million compared to the post-COVID peak of 12.18 million in March 2022. Moreover, the ratio of job openings to unemployed persons has fallen from a peak of 2:1 to the current level of 1.24:1, essentially on top of pre-COVID levels. Combined with last week’s April PCE report, which showed a decline in real personal spending and downward revisions to February and March figures, market confidence is growing that the economy may finally be slowing to a level constructive for sustained disinflation in the coming months.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 6/5/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -5.20% | -5.70% | — |
| 6/5/2024 | ADP Employment Change | 175k | 152k | 192k | 188k |
| 6/5/2024 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 54.8 | 54.8 | 54.8 | — |
| 6/5/2024 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 54.2 | 54.5 | 54.4 | — |
| 6/5/2024 | ISM Services Index | 51 | 53.8 | 49.4 | — |
| 6/5/2024 | ISM Services Prices Paid | 59 | 58.1 | 59.2 | — |
| 6/5/2024 | ISM Services Employment | 47.2 | 47.1 | 45.9 | — |
| 6/5/2024 | ISM Services New Orders | 53.2 | 54.1 | 52.2 | — |
| 6/6/2024 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -3.30% | — |
| 6/6/2024 | Revisions: Trade Balance | ||||
| 6/6/2024 | Nonfarm Productivity | 0.00% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 6/6/2024 | Unit Labor Costs | 4.90% | — | 4.70% | — |
| 6/6/2024 | Trade Balance | -$76.5b | — | -$69.4b | — |
| 6/6/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | — | 219k | — |
| 6/6/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1790k | — | 1791k | — |
| 6/7/2024 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -22k | — |
| 6/7/2024 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 185k | — | 175k | — |
| 6/7/2024 | Change in Private Payrolls | 165k | — | 167k | — |
| 6/7/2024 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 5k | — | 8k | — |
| 6/7/2024 | Unemployment Rate | 3.90% | — | 3.90% | — |
| 6/7/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 6/7/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.90% | — | 3.90% | — |
| 6/7/2024 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.3 | — |
| 6/7/2024 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.70% | — | 62.70% | — |
| 6/7/2024 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.40% | — |
| 6/7/2024 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.50% | — | -1.30% | — |
| 6/7/2024 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 6/7/2024 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | — | $4839b | — |
| 6/7/2024 | Consumer Credit | $10.000b | — | $6.274b | — |
