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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Treasury yields are drifting higher after the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a 25 basis point rate cut.

The ECB cut was widely expected and guided by their leadership in recent weeks, but the central bank also raised its inflation forecast for 2025 slightly. The latter decision is likely done to enforce the idea that there is no pre-commitment to a series of cuts (i.e., a ‘hawkish cut’). ECB President Lagarde will begin her press conference shortly, attempting to walk people through a somewhat tricky message/explanation. In domestic news, initial jobless claims rose modestly to 229,000 last week versus expectations of 220,000 claims.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/6/2024Challenger Job Cuts YoY—-20.30%-3.30%—
6/6/2024Revisions: Trade Balance    
6/6/2024Nonfarm Productivity0.00%0.20%0.30%—
6/6/2024Unit Labor Costs4.90%4.00%4.70%—
6/6/2024Trade Balance-$76.5b-$74.6b-$69.4b-$68.6b
6/6/2024Initial Jobless Claims220k229k219k221k
6/6/2024Continuing Claims1790k1792k1791k1790k
6/7/2024Two-Month Payroll Net Revision——-22k—
6/7/2024Change in Nonfarm Payrolls185k—175k—
6/7/2024Change in Private Payrolls165k—167k—
6/7/2024Change in Manufact. Payrolls5k—8k—
6/7/2024Unemployment Rate3.90%—3.90%—
6/7/2024Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%—0.20%—
6/7/2024Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.90%—3.90%—
6/7/2024Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3—34.3—
6/7/2024Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%—62.70%—
6/7/2024Underemployment Rate——7.40%—
6/7/2024Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.50%—-1.30%—
6/7/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%—0.20%—
6/7/2024Household Change in Net Worth——$4839b—
6/7/2024Consumer Credit$10.000b—$6.274b—
6/10/2024NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations——3.26%—
6/11/2024NFIB Small Business Optimism——89.7—
6/12/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——-5.20%—
6/12/2024CPI MoM0.10%—0.30%—
6/12/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%—0.30%—
6/12/2024CPI YoY3.40%—3.40%—
6/12/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.50%—3.60%—
6/12/2024CPI Index NSA314.346—313.55—
6/12/2024CPI Core Index SA——317.62—
6/12/2024Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY——0.50%—
6/12/2024Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY——0.50%—
6/12/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)5.50%—5.50%—
6/12/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)5.25%—5.25%—
6/12/2024Interest on Reserve Balances Rate——5.40%—
6/12/2024Monthly Budget Statement——$209.5b—
6/13/2024Initial Jobless Claims——229k—
6/13/2024Continuing Claims——1792k—
6/13/2024PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%—0.50%—
6/13/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%—0.50%—
6/13/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM——0.40%—
6/13/2024PPI Final Demand YoY——2.20%—
6/13/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY——2.40%—
6/13/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY——3.10%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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