A risk-on trade emerged overnight following the announcement of a 90-day reprieve for most tariffs between the U.S. and China.
The U.S. will lower tariffs from 145% to 30% during this period, and China will drop its levies from 125% to 10%. S&P 500 futures and oil futures are up more than 3% in early trading, while gold futures are down nearly 3%. The Treasury curve is bear flattening, with front-end yields 10-11 basis points as the market walks back pricing for Fed rate cuts. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the April CPI report tomorrow and April retail sales on Thursday. There are several Fed leaders scheduled to speak this week, including Jerome Powell on Thursday morning.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/12/2025 | Federal Budget Balance | $256.0b | — | -$160.5b | — |
| 5/13/2025 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 95 | — | 97.4 | — |
| 5/13/2025 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 5/13/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 5/13/2025 | CPI YoY | 2.40% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 5/13/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.80% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 5/13/2025 | CPI Index NSA | 320.876 | — | 319.799 | — |
| 5/13/2025 | CPI Core Index SA | 326.568 | — | 325.659 | — |
| 5/13/2025 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 1.40% | — |
| 5/13/2025 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.80% | 1.10% |
| 5/14/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 11.00% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Empire Manufacturing | -8 | — | -8.1 | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.10% | — | 1.40% | 1.50% |
| 5/15/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | — | 0.80% | 0.90% |
| 5/15/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | 0.60% |
| 5/15/2025 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.40% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.70% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.10% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 3.40% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 230k | — | 228k | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 227.00k | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1890k | — | 1879k | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | -10.5 | — | -26.4 | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Capacity Utilization | 77.80% | — | 77.80% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | -0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Business Inventories | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 40 | — | 40 | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Housing Starts | 1365k | — | 1324k | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Building Permits | 1450k | — | 1467k | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Housing Starts MoM | 3.10% | — | -11.40% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Building Permits MoM | -1.20% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Import Price Index YoY | -0.20% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.50% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 2.40% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -19.8 | — |
| 5/16/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 53.3 | — | 52.2 | — |
| 5/16/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 59.9 | — | 59.8 | — |
| 5/16/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 48 | — | 47.3 | — |
| 5/16/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 6.50% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 4.40% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $112.0b | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $284.7b | — |
| 5/19/2025 | Leading Index | — | — | -0.70% | — |
