The Treasury curve is twisting modestly steeper following a relatively quiet overnight session.
Yields are 1-3 basis points (bps) higher for 7-year and longer maturities and 1-2 basis points lower for 5-year and shorter maturities. U.S. and Chinese officials are meeting this weekend to discuss tariffs, with rumors swirling yesterday that the U.S. was prepared to lower current levies to 50% (Trump said 80% “seems right” in a social media post this morning). Yesterday’s trade announcement with the U.K. suggests a minimum 10% tariff is the new baseline with all trading partners. The U.S. actually has a trade surplus with the long-time ally, but the 10% levy is still a significant increase from a rate below 2% in 2023. There will be some exceptions for steel and jet engines, but exports of autos above 100,000 units will face a 25% tariff. There are no data releases today, but five different Fed leaders will speak today, some with multiple appearances.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior |
| 5/05/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 51.2 | 50.8 | 51.4 |
| 5/05/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 51.2 | 50.6 | 51.2 |
| 5/05/2025 | ISM Services Index | 50.2 | 51.6 | 50.8 |
| 5/05/2025 | ISM Services Prices Paid | 61.4 | 65.1 | 60.9 |
| 5/05/2025 | ISM Services New Orders | 50.3 | 52.3 | 50.4 |
| 5/05/2025 | ISM Services Employment | 47.1 | 49 | 46.2 |
| 5/06/2025 | Trade Balance | -$137.2b | -$140.5b | -$122.7b |
| 5/07/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 11.00% | -4.20% |
| 5/07/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 4.50% | 4.50% | 4.50% |
| 5/07/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 4.25% | 4.25% | 4.25% |
| 5/07/2025 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | 4.40% | 4.40% | 4.40% |
| 5/07/2025 | Consumer Credit | $9.387b | $10.172b | -$0.810b |
| 5/08/2025 | Nonfarm Productivity | -0.80% | -0.80% | 1.50% |
| 5/08/2025 | Unit Labor Costs | 5.10% | 5.70% | 2.20% |
| 5/08/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 230k | 228k | 241k |
| 5/08/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | 227.00k | 226.00k |
| 5/08/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1895k | 1879k | 1916k |
| 5/08/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.50% | 0.40% | 0.50% |
| 5/08/2025 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.90% | 0.60% | 2.40% |
| 5/08/2025 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | 3.63% | 3.58% |
