Treasury yields are higher, and the curve is flatter as the market awaits a White House announcement today on an initial trade deal with the UK.
The FOMC kept the fed funds rate unchanged yesterday, as expected. The official statement and Powell’s press conference implied the Fed remains in a holding pattern until there is more clarity on the downside risks to growth versus the upside risks to inflation amid the current trade war. On the data front, nonfarm productivity fell 0.8% in Q1, the first decline in nearly three years, and unit labor costs rose more than expected at a 5.7% rate, the most in a year. Initial jobless claims fell more than expected to 228,000 last week, reversing most of the prior week’s increase attributable to seasonal factors.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/8/2025 | Nonfarm Productivity | -0.80% | -0.80% | 1.50% | 1.70% |
| 5/8/2025 | Unit Labor Costs | 5.10% | 5.70% | 2.20% | 2.00% |
| 5/8/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 230k | 228k | 241k | — |
| 5/8/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | 227.00k | 226.00k | — |
| 5/8/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1895k | 1879k | 1916k | 1908k |
| 5/8/2025 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.90% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 5/8/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 5/8/2025 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.58% | — |
| 5/12/2025 | Federal Budget Balance | — | — | -$160.5b | — |
| 5/13/2025 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 94.3 | — | 97.4 | — |
| 5/13/2025 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.80% | 1.10% |
| 5/13/2025 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 5/13/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 5/13/2025 | CPI YoY | 2.40% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 5/13/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.80% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 5/13/2025 | CPI Index NSA | 320.922 | — | 319.799 | — |
| 5/13/2025 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 325.659 | — |
| 5/13/2025 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 1.40% | — |
| 5/14/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 11.00% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.00% | — | 1.40% | 1.50% |
| 5/15/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | — | — | 0.80% | 0.90% |
| 5/15/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | 0.60% |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.40% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Empire Manufacturing | -8 | — | -8.1 | — |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Final Demand YoY | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | — | — | 3.30% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | -9.6 | — | -26.4 | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Retail Sales Control Group | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 3.40% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 228k | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 227.00k | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1879k | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Capacity Utilization | 77.90% | — | 77.80% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Business Inventories | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | NAHB Housing Market Index | — | — | 40 | — |
