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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Only 12,000 jobs were added to nonfarm payrolls in October, well below the 100,000 expected, and the prior two months’ figures were revised lower by a total of 112,000 jobs.

Private payrolls actually shrunk in October by 28,000 jobs, including a 46,000 decline in manufacturing payrolls. There is, however, extra noise in the data given the recent hurricanes and Boeing workers’ strike. Growth in average hourly earnings was higher than expected at 0.4%, and the average workweek was longer than expected at 34.3 hours.

In the household survey, the unemployment rate (UR) held steady officially at 4.1%, but unrounded, the UR rose from 4.051% to 4.145%. A 368,000 decline in household employment was offset mainly by a 220,00 decline in the official labor force. The household survey should theoretically be less impacted by the aforementioned noise, but it will take economists a little time to dig through the data and assess the relative softness of today’s report. In the meantime, Treasury yields have flipped from slightly higher ahead of the release to down 7-9 basis points on the front end of the curve.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
11/1/2024Change in Nonfarm Payrolls100k12k254k223k
11/1/2024Two-Month Payroll Net Revision—-112k72k—
11/1/2024Change in Private Payrolls70k-28k223k192k
11/1/2024Change in Manufact. Payrolls-30k-46k-7k-6k
11/1/2024Unemployment Rate4.10%4.10%4.10%—
11/1/2024Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.40%0.40%0.30%
11/1/2024Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.00%4.00%4.00%3.90%
11/1/2024Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.234.334.234.3
11/1/2024Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%62.60%62.70%—
11/1/2024Underemployment Rate—7.70%7.70%—
11/1/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI47.8—47.8—
11/1/2024Construction Spending MoM0.00%—-0.10%—
11/1/2024ISM Manufacturing47.6—47.2—
11/1/2024ISM Prices Paid50—48.3—
11/1/2024ISM New Orders47—46.1—
11/1/2024ISM Employment45—43.9—
11/1/2024Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.80m—15.77m—
11/4/2024Factory Orders-0.40%—-0.20%—
11/4/2024Factory Orders Ex Trans——-0.10%—
11/4/2024Durable Goods Orders——-0.80%—
11/4/2024Durables Ex Transportation——0.40%—
11/4/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air——0.50%—
11/4/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——-0.30%—
11/5/2024Trade Balance-$74.5b—-$70.4b—
11/5/2024ISM Services Index53.5—54.9—
11/5/2024ISM Services Prices Paid——59.4—
11/5/2024ISM Services Employment——48.1—
11/5/2024ISM Services New Orders——59.4—
11/6/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——-0.10%—
11/6/2024S&P Global US Services PMI55.3—55.3—
11/6/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI——54.3—
11/7/2024Nonfarm Productivity2.30%—2.50%—
11/7/2024Unit Labor Costs0.80%—0.40%—
11/7/2024Initial Jobless Claims——216k—
11/7/2024Continuing Claims——1862k—
11/7/2024Wholesale Trade Sales MoM——-0.10%—
11/7/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM——-0.10%—
11/7/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)4.75%—5.00%—
11/7/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)4.50%—4.75%—
11/7/2024Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate——4.90%—
11/7/2024Consumer Credit$14.450b—$8.929b—
11/8/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment70.6—70.5—
11/8/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions——64.9—
11/8/2024U. of Mich. Expectations——74.1—
11/8/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation——2.70%—
11/8/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——3.00%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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