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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

The tone in financial markets is relatively calm ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC decision.

Treasury yields are 1-3 basis points lower (curve steeper), and oil prices are down 1-2% with no major headlines out of the Middle East overnight. A 25-basis point rate hike is essentially fully priced in by the bond market, so anything different from the Fed would spark a notable market reaction. We probably won’t get very much from Fed Chair Warsh in terms of guidance during the press conference, but there will be an updated Summary of Economic Projections released. Given the lack of verbal guidance, markets will likely pay even closer attention to the updated dot plot (fed funds projections).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/16/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —-4.10%-2.70%     —
9/16/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity-2.2-8.70.5     —
9/16/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.80%1.20%-0.60%-0.50%
9/16/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.60%1.40%-0.30%-0.20%
9/16/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%1.20%-0.20%-0.30%
9/16/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.50%1.40%-0.40%     —
9/16/2026Import Price Index MoM0.50%0.70%-0.40%-0.30%
9/16/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.30%0.80%0.30%     —
9/16/2026Import Price Index YoY6.60%7.00%5.90%6.10%
9/16/2026Export Price Index MoM0.60%0.60%-1.30%-1.40%
9/16/2026Export Price Index YoY8.90%8.60%8.20%8.10%
9/16/2026Business Inventories0.80%     —0.00%     —
9/16/2026NAHB Housing Market Index34     —35     —
9/16/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)4.00%     —3.75%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.75%     —3.50%     —
9/16/2026Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate3.90%     —3.65%     —
9/16/2026Fed Reverse Repo Rate3.75%     —3.50%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr4.13%     —3.75%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr3.88%     —3.63%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs3.63%     —3.38%     —
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +3 Yrs3.38%     —     —     —
9/16/2026FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run3.13%     —3.06%     —
9/16/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$133.5b     —
9/16/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$172.7b     —
9/17/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook32.5     —47.4     —
9/17/2026Initial Jobless Claims207k     —206k     —
9/17/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —206.00k     —
9/17/2026Continuing Claims1780k     —1774k     —
9/17/2026Housing Starts1319k     —1239k     —
9/17/2026Housing Starts MoM6.60%     —-12.40%     —
9/17/2026Building Permits1410k     —1433k     —
9/17/2026Building Permits MoM-1.40%     —4.30%     —
9/17/2026Pending Home Sales MoM-0.10%     —-2.30%     —
9/17/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-5.00%     —-2.50%     —
9/18/2026Industrial Production MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
9/18/2026Manufacturing Production MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
9/18/2026Capacity Utilization76.40%     —76.30%     —
9/18/2026Leading Index0.10%     —0.20%     —
9/21/2026Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks at Event    
9/21/2026Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —-0.08     —
9/22/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —16.250k     —
9/22/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-10.6     —
9/22/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —4     —
9/22/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-12     —
9/23/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-4.10%     —
9/23/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —53.9     —
9/23/2026S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —56.5     —
9/23/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —56     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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