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Author Kirby Hart

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are 3 bps higher this morning following continued news about the progress of trying to find a resolution in the Middle East.

President Trump delivered escalatory remarks against Iran in his UN speech Tuesday, which dimmed hopes for a deal to restore Middle East fuel exports and reversed the tape intraday. Oil reversed course yesterday after these comments and has now moved higher after consecutive declining trading days. The markets will primarily follow news from the war on whether a resolution can be found in the near term or further escalation occurs. Equity futures point to a relatively flat open after the indexes moved lower following President Trump’s speech to the UN yesterday afternoon.

Kirby Hart
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/23/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —-1.50%-4.10%     —
9/23/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI53.7     —53.9     —
9/23/2026S&P Global US Services PMI55.8     —56.5     —
9/23/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI55.3     —56     —
9/24/2026Current Account Balance-$258.1b     —-$226.8b     —
9/24/2026Initial Jobless Claims200k     —196k     —
9/24/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —203.25k     —
9/24/2026Continuing Claims1740k     —1730k     —
9/24/2026New Home Sales616k     —607k     —
9/24/2026New Home Sales MoM1.30%     —-10.50%     —
9/24/2026Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity8     —10     —
9/24/2026Building Permits     —     —1394k     —
9/24/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —-2.70%     —
9/25/2026Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey    
9/25/2026Durable Goods Orders-0.30%     —1.10%     —
9/25/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.60%     —0.40%     —
9/25/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%     —0.00%     —
9/25/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.70%     —1.20%     —
9/25/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment47.5     —47.8     —
9/25/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions50.7     —50.9     —
9/25/2026U. of Mich. Expectations45.7     —45.8     —
9/25/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.60%     —
9/25/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.40%     —3.40%     —
9/25/2026Kansas City Fed Services Activity-5     —-3     —
9/28/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity7.2     —11.6     —
9/29/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —0.00%     —
9/29/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA     —     —0.24%     —
9/29/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —2.10%     —
9/29/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.52%     —
9/29/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence91     —89.4     —
9/29/2026Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —121.2     —
9/29/2026JOLTS Job Openings7225k     —7271k     —
9/29/2026Conf. Board Expectations     —     —68.2     —
9/29/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.40%     —
9/29/2026JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3056k     —
9/29/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —1.90%     —
9/29/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1666k     —
9/29/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.00%     —
9/29/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —4.2     —
9/30/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.50%     —
9/30/2026ADP Employment Change58k     —38k     —
9/30/2026Retail Inventories MoM     —     —0.70%0.80%
9/30/2026BEA Releases Annual Revisions to GDP and Personal Income    
9/30/2026Personal Income0.40%     —0.40%     —
9/30/2026Personal Spending0.80%     —0.20%     —
9/30/2026Real Personal Spending     —     —0.00%     —
9/30/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.40%     —0.20%     —
9/30/2026PCE Price Index YoY3.70%     —3.70%     —
9/30/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
9/30/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY3.40%     —3.30%     —
9/30/2026GDP Annualized QoQ1.50%     —1.50%     —
9/30/2026Personal Consumption     —     —3.40%     —
9/30/2026GDP Price Index     —     —6.40%     —
9/30/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ     —     —3.60%     —
9/30/2026Advance Goods Trade Balance-$111.7b     —-$118.8b-$118.9b
9/30/2026Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —-2.90%     —
9/30/2026Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —3.70%3.90%
9/30/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —1.30%     —
9/30/2026MNI Chicago PMI51.9     —47.1     —

Kirby Hart

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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