A modest risk-on tone to start the week has Treasury yields 3-5 basis points lower and equity futures higher ahead of the open.
The dollar rallied 1% versus the Japanese yen overnight, easing carry trade unwind fears for the time being. While Friday’s jobs report provided no clear support either way in the 25 vs. 50 basis point rate cut debate, Fed Governor Waller conveyed an openness to “front-loading” rate cuts if the data supports it in a speech on Friday. The August CPI report will be released on Wednesday, and there will continue to be extra focus on weekly jobless claims data released on Thursday. The Fed has now entered the blackout period for external communications ahead of the September 18 FOMC meeting.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 9/9/2024 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 9/9/2024 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.60% | — |
| 9/9/2024 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 2.97% | — |
| 9/9/2024 | Consumer Credit | $11.200b | — | $8.934b | — |
| 9/10/2024 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 93.7 | — | 93.7 | — |
| 9/11/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 1.60% | — |
| 9/11/2024 | CPI MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 9/11/2024 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 9/11/2024 | CPI YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.90% | — |
| 9/11/2024 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.20% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 9/11/2024 | CPI Index NSA | 314.847 | — | 314.54 | — |
| 9/11/2024 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 318.872 | — |
| 9/11/2024 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 9/11/2024 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 9/12/2024 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 9/12/2024 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 9/12/2024 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 9/12/2024 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 1.70% | — | 2.20% | — |
| 9/12/2024 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.40% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 9/12/2024 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 3.30% | — |
| 9/12/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 227k | — | 227k | — |
| 9/12/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1850k | — | 1838k | — |
| 9/12/2024 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | — | $5117b | — |
| 9/12/2024 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$276.0b | — | -$243.7b | — |
| 9/13/2024 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 9/13/2024 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 9/13/2024 | Import Price Index YoY | 0.90% | — | 1.60% | — |
| 9/13/2024 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.10% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 9/13/2024 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 1.40% | — |
| 9/13/2024 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 68.3 | — | 67.9 | — |
| 9/13/2024 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 61.5 | — | 61.3 | — |
| 9/13/2024 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 70.5 | — | 72.1 | — |
| 9/13/2024 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 2.70% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 9/13/2024 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.00% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 9/16/2024 | Empire Manufacturing | -4 | — | -4.7 | — |
